“An electromagnetic pulse could kill more people by turning off ventilators than by hitting power plants”. The sentence of Emma Newman, consultant to the British Ministry of Defence, summarises the paradox of the dystopian scenarios modern: the more connected we are, the more fragile we become.
While traditional governments rely on statistical models, the United Kingdom is betting on those who can write thrillers. The result? Emergency plans that sound like horror movie scripts. But if fiction becomes the State's plan B, who draws the line between prudence and psychosis?
When Dystopian Scenarios Surpass Reality
The British Ministry of Defence has transformed literary nightmares into operational tools. Total electromagnetic blackouts, self-driving cars transformed into death traps, and algorithmic pandemics are now part of simulation exercises.
Allen Stroud, Chairman of the British Science Fiction Association, an association that brings together science fiction writers, reveals: “They ask us to imagine crises that no politician would dare to admit in public”. One example: thousands of self-driving cars stranded on Britain’s M1 and M25 motorways, with passengers trapped without air conditioning or water.
Why? The reason is simple: Novelists can spot social fault lines that are invisible to predictive models. “While data says ‘unlikely,’ one author notes that turning off pacemakers is more lethal than a missile”, explains Emma Newman. This approach has already produced 209 dystopian scenarios tested in secret exercises, including a simulation of global famine in 2070 caused by the collapse of natural and artificial pollinators.
And if it seems strange to you today, think that the day after September 11th the same thing happened in the USA, where the government turned to Hollywood screenwriters to assume the worst.
The Dark Side of Imagination
Collaborating with the government is not without risks. Some authors have refused, fearing to normalize avoidable catastrophes, and even to suggest some “usable” ones. “There is an ethical dilemma”, admits Stroud. “If I describe a water crisis in 2045, I risk turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy”. And yet, the Ministry insists: credible dystopian scenarios are needed to test the resilience of infrastructures. Like the case of the "humanitarian aircraft carriers" attacked by pirate drones in the North Sea, conceived by the author of cyberpunk Chen Qiufan.
The results? In a 2024 test, 63% of officials failed to handle a cyber attack on the national electricity grid, even though he had the manual in front of his eyes. “Narrative forces you to think non-linearly”, explains Newman. “A politician sees numbers, a writer sees people struggling to survive without light”.
From Pages to Strategic Plans
The most controversial experiment concerns the publication of Resilience Tales, an anthology of stories used to train military leaders. In one story, Ann leckie describes an England in 2087 where artificial intelligence controls Parliament. “It's not science fiction, it's a warning”Comments Jeannette Ng, author involved in the project.
The UK Ministry of Defence is even developing a strategy video game based on some of these dystopian scenarios, in which players must manage multiple simultaneous crises.
“We want to teach leaders to think like screenwriters”, explains a spokesperson. “If you anticipate every twist and turn, you avoid being caught off guard”.
Dystopian scenarios, prepare for the worst without letting it happen
Critics like Naomi Alderman, author of The Power, warn: “Using imagination to plan disasters risks making them inevitable”. But the government replies that dystopian scenarios are there precisely to prevent the worst. As in the case of the 2023 anti-EMP exercises, which led to 120 British hospitals being shielded from electromagnetic pulses.
The paradox remains: the more we imagine catastrophes, the more insecure we feel. Yet, in an era of climate change and uncontrolled AI, perhaps the only defense is to hire those who know how to transform anxiety into stories. As he concludes Stroud: “If we don't play these mind games, reality will play with us”.