Once upon a time there was a growing world, made of large families and expanding cities. Today that world seems more and more a memory of the past. Depopulation, caused by Birth rates falling and from a progressive population ageing, is redrawing the global demographic map, with consequences that touch every aspect of our lives.
From the economy to welfare, from environmental sustainability to geopolitical balances, this new demographic reality presents us with complex and unprecedented challenges. But not all is lost: if we are able to face this phenomenon with awareness and foresight, we can transform what seems like a threat into an opportunity to build a better and more balanced future for everyone.
Declining fertility, a global phenomenon
A very interesting and detailed McKinsey report (I highly recommend you consult it, it is enlightening) provides the most complete context to navigate this process.
Declining fertility rates are a trend that is common to most countries in the world. According to data from the United Nations, In 2023, the global fertility rate stands at 2,3 children per woman, just above the replacement level of 2,1. In more than half of the countries, home to about two-thirds of the world's population, the rate has fallen below this threshold. Countries such asItaly, Japan , South Korea record some of the lowest rates in the world, with less than 1,5 children per woman. But the phenomenon does not even spare emerging countries such as China andIndia, where fertility has plummeted to 1,2 and 2 children per woman respectively.
Depopulation and aging, the inversion of demographic pyramids
The most obvious consequence of the decline in births and the increase in longevity is the inversion of the population pyramids. If until a few decades ago the pyramid shape, with a broad base of young people and a narrow tip of old people, was the norm, Today in many countries the situation has reversed.
The largest age groups are the central ones and especially those over 65, while the youth base is increasingly thinning out. In Japan, which is the oldest country in the world, people over 65 already represent over 28% of the population. In Italy, where the aging process is just a little slower, the average age exceeded 46 years.
The growing burden of the elderly
The increase in longevity is certainly an extraordinary achievement of human progress. However, combined with the decline in births, it is creating increasingly marked imbalances between generations. The ratio between the working-age population (15-64 years) and those over 65, the so-called "old-age dependency ratio", is sharply declining everywhere.
If in 1950 there were approximately 12 people of working age for every senior citizen, today the ratio dropped to 6 and is expected to will fall to 3 by 2050 in many advanced countries. This means that an ever-decreasing number of workers will have to take care of a growing mass of pensioners through the tax and contribution system.
Depopulation, the shock to the economy
The decline in the working-age population will have a heavy impact on the economy. Fewer workers means fewer taxpayers, less consumption, less innovation, less dynamism. According to projections, GDP per capita could decline by up to 0,8% annually in some countries due to the demographic effect alone. To maintain current growth rates, It will be necessary to increase labor productivity from 50% to 80% compared to current levels. A daunting challenge, which will require massive investments in automation, artificial intelligence and retraining of human capital.
Not to mention the growing pressure on pension and health systems, which will absorb an ever-increasing share of public resources.
Rethinking the social contract
Depopulation is not just a matter of numbers. It is a profound transformation that affects the very foundations of our social and generational pact. In an aging world, the traditional flow of resources from young to old risks being interrupted. Future generations will inherit less wealth, fewer opportunities, more debt, and more burdens.
The very principle of intergenerational solidarity, on which our welfare systems are based, will have to be rethought. Depopulation will “force” us into new mechanisms of redistribution, new forms of collaboration between public and private, new balances between rights and duties. But above all, a new pact between generations will be needed, based on equity, responsibility and a long-term vision.
A challenge to face together
Reversing the population decline will not be easy or immediate. Bringing birth rates back to replacement levels would require a seismic shift in social, cultural and economic behavior. A shift that goes far beyond the pro-natalist policies implemented so far (even if they are also going in the right direction).
What is needed is an integrated, long-term strategy that acts on multiple fronts: il support for families, work-parenting balance, valorization of female human capital,integration of immigrants, il rethinking the development model in terms of sustainability, end of the myth of “infinite growth”. A strategy that involves all social actors, from institutions to businesses, from associations to citizens.
Depopulation is a complex but not impossible challenge. If we can face it with awareness, courage and vision, we can transform it into an opportunity to build a more equitable, inclusive and sustainable society. A society in which every life counts and in which the future is a heritage to be cultivated together, day after day. The game is still open, but time is running out. The time to act is now.