It thundered so much that it rained: the collapse of the regime Bashar al-Assad marked an epochal turning point for Syria, opening the doors to a series of scenarios that could redraw the political and social geography of the country. After decades of authoritarian rule, the fall of a dynasty like the Assads brings with it a veritable labyrinth of hypotheses (from those “for the better” to those even “for the worse”) for regional stability and the well-being of Syrians. Here are some possible scenarios:
Cantonization
One of the most discussed hypotheses is the cantonization of Syria. With the fragmentation of the opposition forces and the presence of different ethnic and religious groups such as Kurds, Sunnis, Alawites e Christians, a federal or confederal system could emerge.
Some analysts suggest that the creation of autonomous states or semi-independent regions It could be a way to stabilize the country, allowing each community to govern itself. The flipside: this solution could also lead to internal conflict if not handled carefully, given that Syria's territorial integrity has been a point of pride and conflict for decades.
Turkish influence
Turkey has shown significant interest in Syrian developments, particularly in the northern regions where the Kurdish presence is strong.
With the fall of Assad in Syria, Ankara could seek to consolidate its influence, perhaps by supporting Sunni opposition groups or pushing for a “Turkish-orbit Syria.” An influence that could lead to a new regional alliance, altering the balance of power in the Middle East, with Turkey seeking to become a dominant player.
The Role of Iran and Russia
Before Assad’s fall, both Iran and Russia had invested significantly in maintaining the regime. Now, with Assad out of the picture, these powers may have to rethink their positions. Russia, in particular, has (perhaps I should say “had”) military bases on the Syrian coast, and may seek to maintain or negotiate in future agreements for Ukraine a role in the new political structure, in order not to lose its strategic presence in the Mediterranean.
Iran, on the other hand, could also face a major loss of influence if a new Syrian administration were to be (and this is quite likely) much less close to Tehran.
Syria, the refugee issue and reconstruction
With the end of the Assad regime, one of the priorities will be the return of the millions of Syrians who have been forced to flee the war. The humanitarian situation, already critical, could see an improvement if security and stability can be guaranteed.
Rebuilding a devastated country will require massive investment and international cooperation that is not yet guaranteed. Economic sanctions, limited resources, and a lack of trust between factions could complicate this process and exacerbate what is currently the most immediate scenario: the scenario that passes through ISIS.
The jihadist scenario
Among the most immediate and worrying prospects is the possible imposition of Sharia over part or all of Syria by jihadist groups. With the fall of Assad, groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham they might try to expand their control, turning Syria into a sort of “Afghanistan light,” with all the implications in terms of human rights, regional security and migratory flows.
Excuse me, is there also room to talk about Peace and Democracy in Syria?
Needless to say, there is a widespread desire among many Syrians and part of the international community for a transition to a pluralist democracy. Among the hypotheses on the table of various chancelleries there will certainly be a peace conference in Geneva to manage the post-Assad, involving various factions (including more moderate opposition groups and figures of the old regime who were not directly involved in the atrocities).
Why did I mention this scenario last? Simple: because I have no illusions and I consider it the least likely. The road to democracy is full of obstacles, including the legacy of decades of sectarian divisions, the presence of armed militias and of course the external influence of countries (yes, not only Russia, Iran and Turkey but also, for example, the USA, Israel and France) with conflicting interests.
In short (Italian only)
The fall of the Assad regime does not mark the end of the challenges for Syria, but the beginning of a new complex chapter. The hypotheses on the future of the country vary from scenarios of territorial fragmentation to attempts at democratic unification, passing through the consolidation of new regional influences. The risk of going from the "frying pan" to the "fire" is not averted, indeed: more concrete than ever.
What is clear is that Syria's future will also depend on how Syrians, with the support or interference of the international community, will be able to navigate their historical differences and external geopolitical ambitions. The hope is that, after so much pain, a Syria will emerge finally at peace with itself and its neighbors.
