Few actors on the cosmic stage have aroused as much apprehension as the meteor shower of Taurids. For years, this collection of space debris has fueled doomsday scenarios and theories of doomsday. But science, in its relentless pursuit of truth, has just shed new light on this celestial phenomenon. A recent study, presented to the American Astronomical Society’s Division of Planetary Sciences, is upending our beliefs about space threats. Friends who are rooting for Asteroid, it will be for next time. Sorry.
The meteor shower that is no longer scary
The Taurid meteor shower, always visible from Earth during the October and November meteor showers, has long been a source of wonder… and concern. The shower was thought to contain a significant number of potentially hazardous asteroids, remnants of the Comet Encke. Now, thanks to new observations, we can breathe a collective sigh of relief. The research team, led by Quanzhi Ye ofUniversity of Maryland, took advantage of a unique opportunity. During a close pass of the meteor shower, researchers pointed the powerful telescope Zwicky Transient Facility toward this space debris. The result? No more worries. A drastic reduction in the estimate of large asteroids within the swarm. There. See? Did it take that long?
Meteor shower: numbers that reassure
Previous estimates suggested the presence of numerous large objects, remains of an original celestial body about 100 km in diameter. Now, new data paints a much less alarming picture. Ye he explains:
Fortunately, we've discovered that there are likely only a handful of asteroids, maybe only 9 to 14,which fall into this large class in the swarm.
This very serious downward revision reassures us about the safety of our planet, and as a bonus it also offers new insights into the formation and evolution of celestial objects. The parent body of the Taurid swarm it was probably closer to 10 km in diameter, rather than the 100 km previously assumed. You guys always have to overdo it, huh?
Implications for planetary defense
These new findings have significant implications for planetary defense. The risk of a catastrophic meteor impact similar to the one that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago (although perhaps I should say “to those”) is much less likely. Obviously, Ye reminds us that we must not let our guard down: “we must always remain vigilant for asteroid impacts, but we can probably sleep better knowing these results”. The research does not simply reassure us. It offers us precious information on how small celestial bodies such as comets and asteroids form and disintegrate over time. Let's take the “mother” of the Taurids, the Comet EnckeA unique comet, with one of the shortest orbital periods known: only 3,3 years. Despite its rapid orbit, it is surprisingly large and dusty. Scientists believe that Comet Encke has fragmented in the past and may continue to do so. Each fragment, each speck of cosmic dust, tells a story of collisions, mergers, and breakups that spans billions of years.
The future of research
The bottles of sparkling wine were put in the cellar for this news, for the fact that Apophis it will tickle us and for the more general one of the observed asteroids (we would expect 1000 years of tranquility) still need to continue monitoring space for near-Earth objects. The team of Ye already has new observations planned for the 2025 and the 2026, when the Taurid swarm will pass close to Earth again. Future observations will refine the current results, and may also reveal new details about the composition and dynamics of the swarm. Each close pass is a “better sketch” of the meteor impact scenario.
The Taurids will continue to light up our autumn skies, and now we can enjoy it with a little less anxiety. Science has once again shown us that knowledge is the best antidote to fear. And who knows, maybe one day it will be us to visit these enigmatic space debris, transforming what we once feared into new frontiers to explore.