If climate were a TV series, the 13 months of record temperatures just concluded would have been a season of binge-watching. But even now that we have reached the season finale, make no mistake: climate change still has many episodes in store for us.
The end of a hot series
From June 2023 to June 2024, our planet experienced an incredible heat marathon. Air and ocean surface temperatures they exceeded the records set just a few years earlier by an average of a quarter of a degree Celsius.
This streak of record temperatures finally ended in July 2024, when temperatures were slightly lower (by only 0,04°C) compared to the previous July. They say it Copernicus data, not me.
The numbers behind the record temperatures
To understand the scope of this phenomenon, here are some key data:
- July 2023 it was 0,28°C warmer than the previous record July in 2019.
- The all-time global temperature record was recorded in December 2023, with 1,78°C above the pre-industrial average for that month.
- July 2024 was still 1,48°C warmer than a typical pre-industrial July.
The causes of this heat wave
The main protagonist of this story is, unsurprisingly for a long time, climate change caused by human activities. But as in any good series, there are also co-protagonists:
- The boy: This climate phenomenon played a significant role, reaching its peak towards the end of 2023.
- The Sun: Currently in a phase of its 11 year cycle where emits slightly more energy.
- Methane: The concentration of this powerful greenhouse gas it has increased most rapidly in the last decade. Here a report of the IEA to delve deeper into the topic.
- Reduction of air pollution: Paradoxically, cleaning the air may have contributed to warming by reducing the cooling effect of certain pollutants.
The “ratchet” mechanism of record temperatures
El Niño acts like a ratchet on global warming, gradually raising the threshold. A major El Niño event breaks new records and establishes a higher “new normal” for global temperatures. This new normal reflects the underlying trend of global warming.
One plausible scenario is that global temperatures will hover around the 1,4°C level for several years, until the next major El Niño event pushes the world beyond 1,5°C of warming, perhaps into the early 30s. this century.
Record temperatures: looking to the future
While the Pacific is likely returning to La Niña conditions, global temperatures will continue to decline, but likely not to levels seen prior to 2023/24.
The Paris Climate Agreement committed the world to making every effort to limit global warming to 1,5°C, because the impacts of climate change are expected they will rise above that level.
A note of hope
The good news is that the transition away from fossil fuels has begun in sectors such as electricity generation, where renewable energy meets a growing share of growing demand.
However, the transition is not happening fast enough. Achieving climate goals is not compatible with fully exploiting existing fossil fuel infrastructure, and yet new investments in oil platforms and gas fields continue until at least 2029.
Conclusion
Headlines about record global temperatures are likely to return. But they don't have to do it forever. There are many options to accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy, and it is increasingly urgent that these are pursued.
As in any good TV series, the finale of this season of record temperatures leaves us with many questions and anxiously waiting for the next one. The difference is that, in this case, we are the writers and the actors. Our actions will determine whether next season is an apocalyptic thriller or a story of redemption and innovation. The choice, and the responsibility, are ours.
