If the history of earthquake prediction were a book, it would have chapters full of failed attempts, harebrained theories, and dashed hopes. Now, in a Texas laboratory, a group of modern digital alchemists have created an AI that promises to do the impossible: predict the unpredictable.
He doesn't wear cloaks or wave wands, but he has the almost "supernatural" ability to anticipate the seismic vagaries of our planet. How does it work?
An AI for earthquake prediction
The University of Texas's artificial intelligence doesn't just make vague hypotheses: it offers predictions one week in advance and 70% accuracy. The current forecast record belongs to an experimental technology based on GPS, and is two hours. It's like having an earthquake forecaster, but instead of clouds and rain, he predicts epicenters and magnitudes.
The secret? A huge data set. 5 years of seismic data sifted by sophisticated algorithms. It's as if they taught a computer to "hear" the Earth's whispers before they turn into roars.
“Predicting earthquakes is truly a holy grail,” he says Sergey Fomel, professor in the Department of Economic Geology. “We are not yet close to making predictions anywhere in the world, but what we have achieved shows that what we thought was an impossible problem is, in principle, solvable.”
A “digital oracle” for public safety
Imagine the implications of this study (that I link to you here). Governments evacuating risk areas days in advance. Buildings strengthened on time. Pre-positioned emergency resources. Earthquake prediction could transform from an academic dream to a tool for mass salvation.
Of course, like any revolutionary technology, this one has its limitations. The accuracy of the AI will vary (even a lot) depending on the region and the quality of the seismic data available.
The future of earthquake prediction
The researchers don't stop there. The next step? Create a “ChatGPT for earthquakes”, an AI capable of making predictions anywhere in the world. It's an ambitious goal, but if the history of science has taught us anything, it's that what seems impossible today could be routine tomorrow.
It seems needless to say, but let's be clear: this technology will not stop earthquakes. The Earth will continue to shake and shake as it has for billions of years. But for the first time in history, we may have a strategic advantage, an opportunity to prepare and mitigate damage.
One day, checking seismic forecasts will be as natural as checking the weather. “Hmm, it looks like there will be an earthquake next week. Better to stick those books on the shelf.”
