Someone has convinced himself that he can order rain like you order pizza: I'm talking about the United Arab Emirates, and what they are trying to achieve with cloud seeding. In a country where water is more precious than oil, planes loaded with salts and chemicals soar across the skies, promising to transform the desert into an oasis.
Can it really work? Are they really taming nature, or have they just created an elaborate, useless and even potentially dangerous meteorological “illusion show”?
The story of cloud seeding
The idea of manipulating the weather is not new. The first systematic attempts to create rain date back to 1891, when a group of scientists and American Civil War veterans attempted to cause rain using explosives in Texas. In the 40s, scientists at General Electric discovered that dry ice could induce the formation of ice crystals in clouds. This discovery led to cloud seeding experiments during the Cold War, including attempts to modify hurricanes and influence weather conditions during conflicts.
The ambitious program of the Emirates
The United Arab Emirates, which averages just 12,7-17,8 cm (5-7 inches) of rain per year, has undertaken an ambitious cloud seeding program since 2015. The country has invested millions of euros in Rain Enhancement Program, funding global research into new technologies to increase rainfall.
The technology behind cloud seeding
The process uses aircraft Beechcraft King Air C90 modified, equipped with 48 kg of material for each flight. Pilots release table salt particles coated with a nanometric layer of titanium dioxide, calls Ghaith 1 e Ghaith 2. These particles are designed to attract water molecules, forming droplets that coalesce until they become heavy enough to fall as rain.
The results? Few lights and many shadows
Despite massive investments, the effectiveness of cloud seeding remains a matter of debate. A study of 2021 reported a 23% increase in annual precipitation in seeded areas compared to historical averages. However, experts warn that climate variations could affect these data in unpredictable ways.
The approach of the Emirates, however, differs from that of other countries. In IndiaFor example, the Institute of Tropical Meteorology uses two aircraft: one for seeding and the other to measure the effects on the cloud. This method showed an 18% increase in raindrop formation within the seeded clouds.
Costs and benefits
According to a 2023 document of the Emirates National Meteorology Center, the average cost of rainwater generated by cloud seeding is between 1 and 4 cents per cubic meter, compared with i 31 cents per cubic meter of desalinated water. However, every insemination mission costs up to 8.000 euros, and provides no guarantees that rain will fall where it is needed.
For this reason, the Emirates are exploring even more advanced techniques. Guillaume Matras, a French researcher, is developing a method to induce rain using powerful lasers. The goal of this technique is to influence clouds through acoustic, convective and ionization mechanisms.
Cloud seeding, doubts of all sorts
One might think that if a government has been using a technique like this for almost 10 years, there is certainly a positive benefit. Yet doubts about the real effectiveness and possible long-term consequences of cloud seeding persist. Some researchers have expressed concerns about the quality of scientific research conducted in the Emirates, suggesting a tendency to overestimate the results.
Furthermore, the use of titanium dioxide (TiO₂) in seeding particles raises environmental and health concerns. This material, classified as a “possible human carcinogen” by the WHO, can accumulate in soil and water, negatively affecting soil microbial life and potentially crop growth. Inhalation of TiO₂ nanoparticlesFurthermore, it could represent a risk to human health, especially in work environments with high exposure. Other concerns about cloud seeding are related to managing potential heavy rain and flooding events, as observed recently in Dubai.
Not to mention that cloud seeding also has geopolitical implications. In 2018, an Iranian general accused the Emirates (and Israel) to "steal" the rain of his country. It is symptomatic of the fact that meteorological technology could indeed become a form of soft power, and potentially a source of international tensions.
In summary: science or illusion?
Cloud seeding in the United Arab Emirates represents a fascinating case study in the intersection of science, politics and technological ambition. The scientific world (and not only) observes this practice with a mixture of skepticism and curiosity, the long-term sustainability of which remains an open question, considering the potential accumulation of materials in soil and water.
With climate change threatening to make arid regions even drier, the stakes are high. The real test will be whether this technology can provide a sustainable solution to water scarcity, not just for the Emirates, but potentially for other arid regions of the world.
For now, the sky over the Emirates remains an open-air laboratory, where the line between weather control and dangerous illusion remains blurred like a mirage in the desert.
