China is increasingly protagonist on the global scene. With his conquests, his results, and also with his chiaroscuro. A particularly visible phenomenon in terms of the green economy. The country of the Dragon is leading an unprecedented green revolution, building renewable energy plants at a breakneck pace that literally outclasses the rest of the world watching. Yet, paradoxically, China remains the world's largest emitter of CO2, with a dependence on coal that seems difficult to break. A stark contrast between green ambition and polluting reality that raises crucial questions about the energy and environmental future not only of China, but of the entire planet.
The boom in renewables: an overwhelming record
The numbers speak clearly: China is building nearly double the renewable energy capacity than the rest of the world combined. According to the Global Energy Monitor, the country currently has under construction 339 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity, divided between wind and solar energy. To put these numbers in perspective, the United States, which ranks second in this green race, is building just 40 GW of renewable capacity.
This unprecedented expansion of clean energy is no accident. The President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of “new quality productive forces,” a concept that includes green manufacturing. The result? Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar energy than in the previous three years combined.
And it's well on its way to achieving that its ambitious goal to install 1.200 GW of wind and solar power by 2030, and it seems destined to do so six years early. A result which, if confirmed, would bring within reach the global goal of tripling renewable energy by the end of the decade. Incredible. And then there is the other side of the coin.
China and CO2: the record of emissions
The push towards clean energy collides with another, much darker reality. In fact, despite progress in the renewables sector, China remains firmly in first place as a global emitter of CO2. In 2020, the country released into the atmosphere 12,3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, representing 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions alone. Even more worrying is the fact that these emissions continue to increase year after year, in clear contrast to the reduction efforts implemented by many other countries.
Coal: a “toxic relationship” that is difficult to break
At the root of this paradox is China's persistent dependence on coal. Despite massive investments in renewables, the country continues to build new coal plants at an alarming rate.
Between 2022 and 2023 there was a fourfold increase in the approvals of new power plants compared to the previous five years.
This use of coal is motivated by several reasons. First, there is a need to support economic and industrial growth that is still dizzying. Secondly, concerns about energy security weigh heavily, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the desire not to depend too much on external sources. Finally, the country faces considerable technical difficulties in transmitting renewable energy from the remote regions where it is produced to the industrial centers where it is needed.
The result? Coal continues to generate more than half of China's electricity. A fact that although decreasing compared to previous years, remains incompatible with emissions reduction objectives.
Ambitious projects and titanic challenges
Faced with this situation, China has set itself "high" goals for the future. The country aims to reduce its carbon intensity by 18% and produce 25% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. More importantly, China is committed to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
Achieving these goals will require a herculean effort. It will be necessary not only to continue the expansion of renewables, but also to begin progressively decommissioning existing coal plants. Furthermore, it will be crucial to invest in energy storage technologies and more efficient distribution networks to manage the intermittency of renewable sources.
A global dilemma in miniature
China's situation represents, in amplified form, the dilemma facing many developing countries: how to reconcile the need for rapid economic growth with the imperative to reduce CO2 emissions. China, with its scale and economic weight, is in a unique position to demonstrate whether and how this squaring of the circle is possible.
China's success or failure in resolving its energy paradox will have profound implications for global climate change mitigation efforts. If it can demonstrate that a rapid transition to clean energy is possible while maintaining robust economic growth, it could provide a valuable model for other developing countries.
On the other hand, if China fails to curb its CO2 emissions in time, global efforts to combat climate change could be seriously undermined, given the scale of China's emissions.
China and CO2: a future in the balance
The case of China vividly illustrates the complexity of the fight against climate change. It is not enough to invest massively in renewable energy; We need a holistic approach that addresses all sources of CO2 emissions and considers the economic and political realities of each country.
The world views China's efforts in the field of renewables with a mixture of admiration and concern. As they say in those parts, “Where there is great love, there are always miracles”. It remains to be seen whether the Asian giant will be able to demonstrate its love for the environment in time. And above all, to tame their appetite for coal in time to avoid catastrophic consequences for the global climate.
