There is a very high wall, five meters wide and illuminated by a soft light. A wall entirely covered with 192 patents, arranged in orderly rows like toy soldiers ready for parade. Welcome to the lobby ofChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing, the temple of Chinese science: and the largest scientific research center in the world.
Here, behind a velvet cord, the tangible symbol of China's rise in the firmament of global science is on display: a collection of seeds, protected by glass vials like relics. Revolutionary seeds, the result of cutting-edge discoveries in the field of plant biology. Like the gene that, once removed, increases the length and weight of wheat grains. Or the one that improves the ability of crops like sorghum and millet to grow in saline soils. Innovations that promise to give a boost to the food security of the country and the planet. They are the tip of the iceberg of a record, that of Chinese science, which now embraces all fields of knowledge. From physics to Earth sciences, passing through chemistry, engineering and artificial intelligence. An unstoppable advance, that of research made in China, which is redrawing the map of knowledge on a global level. And which poses unprecedented challenges and opportunities for the international scientific community.
The unstoppable rise
In 2019 The Economist, examined the Chinese science landscape, and wondered whether China could one day become a scientific superpower. Today that question has an unequivocal answer: yes.
The numbers speak clearly: Over the last twenty years, Chinese science has dramatically climbed the ranks of global scientific production, moving from the role of extra to that of absolute protagonist. Just think that in 2003 the USA published 20 times more articles high impact compared to the Asian giant. Ten years later, the report was down to 4 to 1. And today? Chinese science today it surpassed both the USA and the entire European Union in the production of cutting-edge research, the most cited and influential.
An overtaking also certified by other indicators, such as Kind Index, which measures contributions to the most prestigious scientific journals. China has passed here from second place in 2014, when he contributed for less than a third compared to the USA, in first place overall in 2023. And that's not all: according to the Leiden ranking on scientific production, as many as 6 Chinese universities or institutions now appear in the world's top ten. Names like Tsinghua, Shanghai Jiao Tong or Zhejiang, destined to become as familiar as Oxford, Harvard or Zurich Polytechnic.
Tsinghua is now the world's leading university for science and technology. An extraordinary goal, achieved in just one generation.
Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at Oxford
Chinese science, from investments to strategies
How did Chinese science make this leap forward? The answer lies in a mix of factors ranging from investments to strategies, through talent recruitment policies. Let's start with the money: from 2000 to today, Chinese spending on research and development it grew 16 times in real terms. And if in absolute value the USA still maintains a slight advantage (806 billion dollars against 668 in 2021, at purchasing power parity), looking only at the spending of universities and public institutions overtaking is already a reality.
And it's not just about investing more: China has also learned to spend better, surgically directing funds towards strategic areas identified by the Communist Party in its five-year plans. From artificial intelligence to biotechnology, passing through neuroscience, regenerative medicine and the exploration of "new frontiers" such as deep space or the earth's poles. A targeted specialization strategy that is bearing fruit, as demonstrated by the records of Chinese science in key sectors such as advanced materials or quantum computing.
Next to investments, then, there are human capital development policies. Starting from the massive "brain repatriation" programs, the so-called "haigui" (sea turtles), which have attracted millions of Chinese researchers trained abroad to their homeland with generous economic incentives and career prospects. A brain gain that overturned the traditional brain drain, and which today means that China has more researchers than the United States and the EU combined.
The dark side of success
But be careful about painting too idyllic a picture. Because the impetuous rise of Chinese science is not without shadows and contradictions. Starting from the persistence, next to the diamond tips, of one vast production of research of poor quality and impact, often inflated by questionable practices such as “citation cliques” or paying bonuses for publishing at all costs. Problems that the authorities have begun to combat, but which require a change of mentality that is not immediate.
Then there is the thorny question of links between research, state and armed forces. With the risk that scientific progress translates into threats to security or intellectual property, as some Western governments denounce. Fears that are leading to growing distrust (sometimes actual ostracism) towards collaborations with Chinese institutions and researchers. A climate of suspicion that risks damaging the exchange of knowledge from which science draws its lifeblood. A new (hopefully) cold war also between Chinese and Western science, which would harm everyone.
Finally, there is the question of how long the Chinese "miracle" can last, and whether the "scientific arms race" with the West will not end up colliding with the limits of an economy and a society crossed by growing critical issues. From the real estate bubble to the demographic crisis, passing through social and political tensions. Issues that sooner or later will come home to roost, and which could slow down or even interrupt Beijing's momentum towards the pinnacle of knowledge.
Chinese science at a historical crossroads
China's rise to scientific superpower represents a watershed destined to reshape the global balance of knowledge in the 21st century. With unprecedented challenges and opportunities for the entire planet. Because if on the one hand Beijing's new weight opens up scenarios of cooperation on epochal challenges such as climate change or pandemics, on the other hand it raises questions about ethical standards and freedom of research.
It will be necessary to find a difficult balance between recognition of merits and defense of values. Between competition and collaboration. With the awareness that the future of science (and perhaps of humanity) will increasingly depend on how we manage the disruptive impact of the Dragon. Without illusions or demonizations. But with the clarity and courage to face the new reality. Will we be able to meet this challenge? The last meter of progress passes through here.
