Tonga eruption: climate effects and anomalous winters throughout the decade

When the underwater volcano Hungarian Tongan erupted in January 2022, the world held its breath at the destructive power of the eruption and of the tsunami that followed. Thankfully, the rogue waves have subsided, but another threat has crept into the stratosphere: a massive cloud of water vapor, poised to unleash unusual weather effects for the rest of the decade.

A new study reveals this (I link it here) which sheds light on the long-term consequences of this catastrophic event.

The invisible power of steam

The eruption of Hunga Tonga shows us a path little explored by our collective imagination. We are used to thinking of volcanoes as earthly entities, mountains of rock and fire that rise majestically on the surface. But what happens when a volcano explodes under the sea? Water, usually a symbol of life and nourishment, turns into a double-edged sword.

This is what happened in Tonga: the energy released by the eruption vaporized an impressive quantity of sea water, between 100 and 150 million tons. To give you an idea, it's about volume of 60.000 Olympic swimming pools. All this vapor was shot at high altitude, right into the stratosphere, the atmospheric band between 15 and 40 km above sea level.

Here, in a dry and rarefied environment, the steam triggered a series of chain reactions with potentially devastating effects. Which apparently will last a long time.

Tonga, a breach in the ozone layer and a climate anomaly

The first effect, documented by the study, was the amplification of the ozone hole in 2023. Water vapor, in fact, favors the chemical reactions that destroy this precious gaseous shield that protects us from the most harmful solar radiation. Not only that: the steam itself acts as a powerful greenhouse gas, trapping heat and altering the planet's delicate heat balance.

But the surprises don't end there. Climate models suggest the eruption could affect global weather for years, perhaps until 2029. Australia and Scandinavia are expected to experience colder and wetter winters than usual, while North America may experience milder winters. It seems that the volcano has the power to modify the trajectory of atmospheric waves, those sinuous figures that draw anticyclones and depressions on weather maps.

Uncertainty as a compass

Despite the power of mathematical models, much remains shrouded in mystery. We have no historical precedent for eruptions similar to the one in Tonga in the satellite era, which began in 1979. We do not know for sure how long the steam will remain suspended in the upper atmosphere, nor how it will interact with other climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña. We are in uncharted territory, where every new discovery can confirm or overturn our hypotheses.

Each study adds a piece to the puzzle of knowledge, but at the same time reveals new ones, yet to be explored.

Events like this make us face our fragility in the face of the forces of nature. No matter how hard we try to understand and predict, there will always be a margin of uncertainty, an element of surprise that is beyond our control. In Tonga, as in Phlegraean Fields.

It's a lesson in humility that we should keep in mind, especially in an age when humanity deludes itself into thinking that it can bend the planet to your will.