Tensions between the United States and China in the Western Pacific appear set to escalate further. The new battle front? Beijing's plans to install floating nuclear reactors in the South China Sea, an area at the center of long-standing territorial disputes. According to American military and diplomatic leaders, these plants could be used to power military facilities that China has built on artificial islands in disputed waters, a prospect that risks undermining regional security and stability. But Beijing seems determined to move forward, even in the absence of international standards regulating the safe use of these technologies.
Floating nuclear power plants: the new Chinese plan that alarms the USA
US fears about Chinese intentions are nothing new. Already during the Obama administrations and Trump, Washington had expressed concern about Beijing's plans to develop floating nuclear reactors. Today however, at least according to American officials, China it would be at an advanced stage research and development to build these facilities for military purposes. A prospect that risks exacerbating tensions in an area already at the center of territorial disputes and growing Chinese assertiveness.
The South China Sea is in fact an area of crucial strategic and economic importance. An area crossed by a third of global maritime trade and rich in fish and energy resources. But it is also an area at the center of long-standing territorial disputes between China and several countries in the region, such as Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia e Brunei. Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entire area, based on the so-called "nine-dash line", a demarcation which, however, is not reflected in international law.
Artificial islands in the South China Sea: a threat to regional stability?
In recent years, China has stepped up its construction of artificial islands on remote atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, equipping them with ports, airstrips, barracks and hangars. Despite President Xi Jinping's promise in 2015 not to militarize these islands, Beijing has subsequently installed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries, landed planes and docked warships there, raising the alarm of the US and regional allies.
It is in this context that the plans for floating nuclear reactors fit. According to the admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, these facilities would have “potential impacts on all nations in the region”. But the concerns do not only concern possible military applications. Indeed, many experts and environmentalists argue that floating nuclear power plants present unique vulnerabilities compared to their counterparts on land, and that a catastrophic accident could release radioactive contaminants into the ocean, as happened during the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011.
Regulatory and safety challenges: a gap to fill
One of the main concerns of American officials is the lack of a robust legal and regulatory framework that guarantees that these technologies are used in a safe and transparent way. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is trying to develop these standards, but states like China and Russia have slowed the process, trying to shape less stringent standards. A regulatory void that risks leaving the field open to potential disasters.
The scenario that emerges is therefore that of a South China Sea dotted with floating nuclear power plants. Power plants potentially used for military purposes in an area already at the center of tensions and disputes. A prospect that, according to the US ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, risks jeopardizing a region too precious to be put at risk. With a third of global maritime trade, 12% of the world's catch and the presence of terrorist groups in the area, "the last thing you want to do," Emanuel said, "is put 20 floating nuclear facilities in the middle of the South China Sea ”.
Beijing seems determined to proceed with its plans, despite Washington's concerns and the absence of international standards. The risk is that of a further escalation of tensions in what is now the new (hopefully) cold war. A scenario that requires decisive action by the international community to fill regulatory gaps and ensure that the development of these technologies takes place within a framework of security, transparency and respect for international law. Only in this way will it be possible to prevent the South China Sea from turning into a new, dangerous battleground between powers.
