Once again, researchers say, we may have to bite the bullet and prepare for a busy summer. Researchers are carefully monitoring this year's climate patterns as they point to the possible formation of a “Super El Niño,” a phenomenon that follows three consecutive La Niña years.
Do you know what I'm talking about?
For those who don't know, El Niño events occur when the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. When they happen, they trigger weather events that can have catastrophic consequences. And with the help of human-caused rising temperatures, El Niños are becoming increasingly intense and difficult to manage.
The last extreme El Niño dates back to 2016, the year in which average global temperatures set new records. That year, as some of you may remember, was characterized by devastating weather events: 750 natural disasters.
A “Super Niño” on the horizon
From updates from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (I link them to you here), we learn that all seven climate models examined show that sea surface temperatures will exceed the El Niño threshold that occurred in 2016 by August.
For now, researchers caution that it is too early to take this prediction for granted and that projections are less reliable during the Southern Hemisphere autumn. The trend, however, is quite worrying.
Prepare for the worst, hoping for the best
Mike McPhaden, senior scientist at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) warns us about the possible consequences of a Super El Niño: “True large-scale events impact the entire planet, causing extreme droughts, floods, heat waves and storms. If it happens, we will have to prepare for the worst. But it could also fade away. In any case, it is better to remain vigilant and ready for any eventuality.”
A Super El Niño represents an unknown that could put a strain on the environment and our ability to adapt. It would be, after 7 years, the occurrence of an event that usually affected the planet every 20 years. If they were needed other demonstrations of ongoing climate change.
We just have to cross our fingers and hope that the forecasts prove excessively pessimistic. In any case, let's always remember to respect our planet, because it is the only one we have.
