In recent years the global energy market has been turned upside down like a hurricane. Indeed: more hurricanes. Covid lockdowns caused energy consumption to plummet in 2020, with a rebound the following year.
In early 2022, however, the onset of conflict in Ukraine created a domino effect that produced a complicated energy crisis and a resurgence of coal and emissions.
Now that the terrible "General Winter" is descending on Europe and this year is coming to an end, we can detect signs that perhaps authorize us to adopt less apocalyptic tones.
Will Europe survive this winter?
The use of coal has increased, but not as much as feared, and the boom in the renewables market has put a first (admittedly still insufficient) patch on emissions. Meanwhile, Europe has made rapid adjustments to its energy supplies and appears to be able to manage the likely energy demand, at least this winter.
The cold, meanwhile, is making its appearance. And with it the peak in energy consumption. Driven by the demand for heating and electricity, and for the first time "orphan" of natural gas from Russia.
The culmination of this rupture was the sabotage of one of the most important natural gas pipelines, the Nord Stream.
Energy crisis less serious than the geopolitical moment
In short, everything suggests that Europe will face the winter without significant imports of Russian natural gas. This has already led to a massive surge in natural gas prices and a subsequent increase in consumer energy prices even during the summer, when demand was low.
In recent weeks, however, there have been signs of stabilisation. With three perhaps decisive moves: first, Northern European countries began planning measures against the energy crisis. Second, Germany has postponed abandoning nuclear energy by reducing the need for electricity from natural gas. Third, the search for a ceiling on the purchase price of this natural resource.
These measures, combined with the arrival of the (very expensive) liquid gas ships from the USA, have filled the storage facilities to 90% of their capacity.
In short, everything solved?
As mentioned, as long as reasonable conservation measures are taken and there are no prolonged cold waves, Europe should get through this winter largely unscathed.
Secondo IEA estimates, we had an increase in emissions of just 1%. Yes, I know, we should reduce them (due to the other crisis, the climate one) but considering the situation we were lucky.
What about next winter?
Also according to the IEA, the great growth of renewable energy has meant that much of the increase in energy use globally is emissions-free. Estimates say that solar and wind energy production will grow by 2022 terawatt hours in 700, the largest increase ever recorded.
This was enough to avoid 600 million tons of carbon emissions: in other words, the growth of renewables avoided more than double the actual growth of emissions.
With air travel at 80% of pre-pandemic levels and the rapid growth of electric vehicles, the big race is 2023.
I would be lying if I said I foresee a normalization. We still are on the brink of atomic war, one cannot ignore it.
The energy crisis is likely to have much greater effects next year. Equally probably (but I admit that perhaps it is more of a hope) will still be lower than expected.
