In recent years, the global energy market has been turned upside down as if in a hurricane. On the contrary: more hurricanes. The lockdowns due to Covid caused energy consumption to collapse in 2020, with a rebound the following year.
At the beginning of 2022, however, with the start of the conflict in Ukraine, it created a domino effect that produced a complicated energy crisis and a resurgence of coal and emissions.
Now that the terrible "General Winter" is falling over Europe and this year is drawing to a close, we can detect signs that perhaps authorize us to less apocalyptic tones.
Will Europe hold up this winter?
The use of coal has increased, but not as much as feared, and the boom in the renewables market has put a first (certainly, still insufficient) patch on emissions. Meanwhile, Europe has made rapid adjustments to its energy supplies and appears to be able to handle the likely demand for energy, at least this winter.
The cold, meanwhile, is peeping out. And with it the peak of energy consumption. Driven by the demand for heating and electricity, and for the first time "orphan" of natural gas from Russia.
The culmination of this rupture was the sabotage of one of the most important natural gas pipelines, the Nord Stream.
Energy crisis less serious than the geopolitical moment
In summary, everything suggests that Europe will face the winter without significant imports of Russian natural gas. This has already led to a massive surge in natural gas prices and a consequent rise in consumer energy prices even during the summer when demand was low.
In recent weeks, however, there are signs of stabilization. With perhaps three decisive moves: first, the countries of Northern Europe began planning measures against the energy crisis. Second, Germany has postponed the abandonment of nuclear power by reducing the need for electricity from natural gas. Third, the search for a ceiling on the purchase price of this natural resource.
These measures, combined with the arrival of the (very expensive) liquid gas ships from the USA have filled the storage facilities to 90% of their capacity.
In short, everything solved?
As mentioned, as long as reasonable conservation measures are in place and there are no prolonged cold spells, Europe is expected to survive this winter almost unscathed.
Second IEA estimates, we have had an increase in emissions of just 1%. Yes, I know, we should reduce them (for the other crisis, the climate one) but given the situation, it went like a luxury.
What about next winter?
Also according to the IEA, the great growth of renewable energies has meant that much of the increase in energy use globally is emission-free. Estimates say that solar and wind power generation will grow by 2022 terawatt hours in 700, the largest increase ever recorded.
This was enough to avoid 600 million tons of carbon emissions: in other words, the growth of renewables avoided more than double the actual growth of emissions.
With air travel at 80% compared to the pre-pandemic and the rapid growth of electric vehicles, the big race is in 2023.
I would be lying if I said I foresee a normalization. We still are on the verge of an atomic war, one cannot ignore it.
The energy crisis is likely to have much greater effects next year. Equally probably (but I admit that perhaps it is more of a hope) will still be lower than expected.
