In the realm of science fiction, the idea that humanity comes into contact with an extraterrestrial intelligence in one way or another often recurs. Just one example above all: the delightful story of Ted chiang (in the book “Stories of your life”) and the subsequent, magnificent film by Denis Villeneuve. (“Arrival”). If you haven't read and/or seen it, do so.
Anyway, all these speculations are gradually moving from science fiction to more serious contexts. Leaving aside Japan, which for a long time works on its own protocol, and Germany that opened a scientific panel the whole world is moving on the topic. Scholars construct, one scientific article at a time, possible responses and geopolitical consequences of a possible contact with an extraterrestrial intelligence (also called ETI).
Fascinating. Regardless.
The argument is only worthless if you think it is probable or even remotely possible that humanity could ever contact an extraterrestrial intelligence. In fact, it can tell us a lot about ourselves (until proven otherwise, as I've said before, we are the ETs).
A new article just published has a completely orthodox title: “Geopolitical implications of a successful SETI program”. But inside there is a world.
The authors of the document are associated with institutions not to laugh. There NASA (which since last summer also collaborates in the investigation into UAP), the Penn State ETI Center, the Spring Hill College Philosophy Department , Harvard Law School.
The article, first signed by Jason T. Wright of Penn State University, has been accepted for publication by Space Policy magazine, and is currently available on the prepress site arxiv.org. I link it to you here.
Extraterrestrial intelligence and terrestrial maturity
The study just published is somewhat of the answer to a previous article from 2020, also in Space Policy, called “Artificial intelligence research: a question of realpolitik”.
In that paper, the authors noted that much speculation on the topic focuses on one thing: risks. Those related to SETI, (the search for extraterrestrial intelligence) and METI (sending messages to extraterrestrial intelligence). What if our "universe neighbors" were too technologically advanced and threatening? What if they were like the Spanish Conquistadors, and we were like the Incas?
Stephen Hawking was certain:
Technologically advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, trying to conquer and colonize any planet they could reach.
Stephen Hawking, 2010
Hollywood has made billions of dollars on this type of speculation. But there is a much more “basic” risk that we don't even consider.
The risk of receiving even just a signal of extraterrestrial intelligence.
What's so risky about simply detecting a signal? We. We and our realpolitik.
If you are not familiar with this word, “realpolitik”, I will give you a definition and a translation.
The definition: realpolitik is politics based on practical and material factors rather than on theoretical or ethical objectives.
Translation: Power does not obey the laws, it only obeys a greater power.
Realpolitik is vulgar and dirty politics between political groups, or between nations. Realpolitik is what really happens, and overcomes the empty words of politicians, who speak of values and virtues but then do something else.
Realpolitik is about the mechanisms of power in our world. It's about our animalistic nature, largely the same since the dawn of time.
Why would realpolitik be a risk in this case?
If we passively detect the signal of an extraterrestrial intelligence, we would have relative and absolute problems. The related ones would be for Science and Religion.
The religious worldview could in some cases be seriously threatened. There could be significant upheavals in religiously-led countries, even violence by religious extremists, but then things would “normalize.”
Ditto for scientists, who after the "revolutionary" moment would be able to rationalize the discovery and use it as a starting point for many other research. But how would nations and their political leaders react?
We are seeing it today too, with searches for unidentified objects. “A danger to national security”, the US Defense clearly says. On the other side, that of the newly formed Chinese SETI, the proclamations are competitive: “we will be the first to find the ETs".
Whenever nations compete with each other, realpolitik comes into play. And monopolizing possible contact with extraterrestrial intelligence has potential advantages for the nation that monopolizes it.
Yet, in the 2020 study, the two authors argue that realpolitik considerations should be important in planning a successful passive SETI, even suggesting militarizing radio telescopes.
Today the conclusions are opposite
The new study essentially aims to refute the 2020 study. The authors think it is "highly unlikely that a nation could successfully monopolize communication with an extraterrestrial intelligence." I think so too. Our most powerful observatories have multiple nations and institutions as partners, and the scientific community is based on openness, not information protectionism.
Sure, a nation could think to do it. And indeed this would be the most realistic threat.
On balance, the researchers say, it is all to be shown that there would be some advantage in keeping such news for oneself. Alien technologies? We should understand them first. Would Roman scholars understand anything if they acquired a modern text on nuclear physics?
I leave aside the broad considerations and conclusions of the study, which you can read calmly and completely from the source, and I limit myself to saying that the realpolitik approach would be the worst possible.
Even in the study of these currently remote hypotheses, it is necessary to remain lucid.
