Jonathan Jiang, author of a new study on evolution, talks about the possibility of humans becoming an interplanetary species within the next 200 years.
Evaluating available sources and consumed energy, Jiang thinks about the future and what it holds for us: “The Earth is a tiny dot surrounded by darkness. Our current understanding of physics tells us that we are trapped on this little rock with limited resources."
So how can we overcome this "block" and finally become an interplanetary species?
To truly achieve this, humans must learn to fully exploit nuclear energy and renewable energy. Both tools (when and if used in the right way) have ample room for growth. The first innovations will appear in the coming decades, when we reach full maturity in the knowledge of these two forms of energy.
The Kardashev scale
Several years ago (specifically in 1964) the astronomer Nikolai Kardashev created a measurement system capable of estimating the degree of technological evolution of the species. According to the scale developed by Kardashe, and then modified by Carl Sagan, it all comes down to energy. To be precise: it all comes down to where the energy comes from and how much energy is used to help the species achieve its evolutionary goals.
Kardashev gives several examples, creating a sort of "hierarchy" of civilizations.
Type I civilizations they are able to make the most of all the energy present on the planet; the type II civilization they are able to exploit the entire energy production generated by a star: the type III civilization they are capable of harnessing the energy in an entire galaxy.
The human species is currently below level I, although it is increasing its potential year after year.
What to do to “level up”?
Experts dream that our species will take steps forward, reaching the goal of becoming an interplanetary species.
Yet all of this energy consumption comes at a price. To achieve it state of interplanetary species an enormous amount of energy is required: the risks for the earth's biosphere increase accordingly, due to the high quantities of pollutants released, which they cause over 9 million deaths per year.
According to Jiang: “The trick is to be able to avoid self-destruction while increasing our energy consumption to the point where we can reliably exist on multiple worlds at once, even if it's just in the solar system.” Eh. Seems easy.
A new interplanetary species
Jiang worked with his team, looking for the best plan to first achieve Type I Civilization status. In April, he uploaded his study to the arXiv newspaper's prepress server, clarifying the specifics of the research done. We link them to you here.
In short, researchers have traced and explained the consequences of the continued use of fossil fuels. They explained to the public what will happen if we keep the same line.
Apparently, if humanity does not quickly change its energy sources (moving from fuels to nuclear and renewable energy) we will no longer have any hope of climbing the Kardashev ladder and reaching the status of an interplanetary species.
The study hypothesized an annual increase of 2,5% for the use of renewable and nuclear energy, with the aim of maximizing its use within the next 20-30 years: by following this roadmap, we could allow ourselves to reach the Type I civilization state around the year 2371. This will allow us to infinitely increase our space exploration, which today takes the first, tiring steps due to the lack of robust energy sources.
Jiang and colleagues are hopeful, they believe that we will indeed be able to become an interplanetary species within the next 200 years. I won't be there to tell it, but I trust them: if we keep the right direction and use the materials already at our disposal, we will grow much more than expected. And our great-grandchildren will be part of a planet that we couldn't even imagine today.
