A new variant of SARS-CoV-2 with an unusually high number of mutations has been detected in South Africa and appears to have triggered two things: a recent increase in cases, and a very recent increase in general panic. Gentlemen, this is Omicron. Here is a first selection of the data collected around.
When was B.1.1.529 first identified?
First question. There is an article on the World Economic Forum website dated July 12, 2021. You can find it here. This article mentions variant B.1.1.529, as discovered by scientists in South Africa. By clicking on the link relating to the discovery, you are directly catapulted to another article, dated November 26, 2021. The mention was added later, because in the original post of July (you can find it here) there was not.
Therefore, the news that this variant has emerged as early as last summer is false.
The Omicron variant was first detected on November 23 in South Africa using samples taken between 14 and 16 November. Joe Phaahla, South Africa's health minister, said yesterday that he believes the variant is behind an exponential increase in daily covid-19 cases across the country. Yesterday, the WHO designated it a variant “worthy of attention” (concern). This has resulted in several countries adopting travel restrictions for people traveling to or from certain countries (South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Namibia).
What is happening in South Africa?
National daily cases have passed by 274 November 11st to 1000 two weeks later. Although the growth rate has been rapid, the absolute numbers are still relatively low. Over 80% of cases in South Africa are currently in the Gauteng province. All 77 cases sequenced in the province between Nov. 12 and 20 were identified as the Omicron variant. The estimated reproduction number, the average number of people a person is likely to infect, is almost 2 in Gauteng compared to almost 1,5 nationally.
What do Omicron's mutations tell us?
The variant has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” he says Sharon Peacock from the University of Cambridge. There are more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the SARS-CoV-2 that interacts with human cells. Other mutations could help the Omicron variant bypass our immune system, but (it should be emphasized) “this has not been proven.”
The significance of the mutations is currently theoretical and is not based on laboratory tests, but on past experience. We don't know if Omicron will actually reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. However, from the statements of scientists the type of mutations it will certainly compromise (to what extent remains to be assessed) the effectiveness of the antibodies produced by the vaccines.
Mutations on part of the virus are similar to those seen in Alpha and Delta variants, which could help the variant spread more easily. Wendy Barclay of Imperial College London thinks it is “very biologically plausible” that B.1.1.529 has a higher transmissibility than Delta.
Omicron's mutations make it likely to be more resistant even to antibody treatments (such as those developed by Regeneron), which have been proven to save lives. This is indeed a cause for concern. At present, however, there would be a small "positive" note: there are absolutely no signs that Omicron causes a more serious disease.
How widespread is Omicron at the moment?
Genomic sequencing initially found the Omicron variant in South Africa, Botswana e Hong Kong. There are also cases reported in Israel, apparently originating from a traveler from Malawi, And in Belgium, by someone a traveler from Egypt.
It is highly probable that Omicron has spread to other countries.
Will the Omicron variant outperform the Delta? Without going around it: no one knows. If this variant proves less transmissible than the Delta it will certainly be good news.
What do we have to do?
I close (for now) the fresh news with a hope. Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group which developed the AstraZeneca vaccine says he is optimistic that the vaccines will also hold up against Omicron.
Pollard believes a strong recovery from the pandemic is "unlikely". “Most of the mutations” of the Omicron variant “are found in the same places on the spike protein as the other variants” against which vaccines have proven effective.
We'll see. In the meantime, what to do?
The usual social distancing measures are always a North Star. Hand washing, mask use, vaccination and booster are tools that still have some effectiveness. Omicron warns us of the risk of erratic vaccination rates globally: only 24% of people are fully vaccinated in South Africa. We need to help low- and middle-income countries access vaccines.
