There are many questions to answer after Warner Bros decided to release its entire list of films for 2021 both in theaters and in streaming. The main, most striking and provocative is: how many cinemas will disappear?
Most things change quickly in 2020, the year we were all forcibly introduced to the concept of exponential growth. Few things, however, were as quick as WarnerMedia's decision to change its entire approach to theatrical releases, and perhaps that of the entire industry, with movie streaming.
Just two weeks ago, the giant said that Wonder Woman 1984, Warner Bros. 'most expensive 2020 project, would be released simultaneously in theaters and as a movie streamed on the HBO Max service.
This news alone would be enough to induce observers to resort to salts, like Uncle Scrooge after a faint.
But we went further: now WarnerMedia announced which will stream everything. Yes, it will expand this strategy to its entire slate of 2021 films including Dune, Denis Villeneuve's Matrix 4 and the highly anticipated Space Jam sequel.
Film streaming, the concept of "exclusivity window" shattered
It's almost a desecration. The once sacrosanct concept of the often months-long window of exclusivity between a film's premiere and home release has become irrelevant.
No intermediaries. The company will take its films and send it directly from Warner Bros to HBO Max without relinquishing any exclusive control to theaters.
Now it seems like a choice dictated by necessity, in a period of closed cinemas, but it will have far-reaching consequences well beyond the era of social distancing.
The pandemic is not going away and neither is its impact on films
Lest we forget, Warner Bros. is the same studio that bent over backwards to make Tenet the first major hit of the post-lockdown era. After months of delays and poor box office sales, strangely the strategy of trying to wait out the pandemic and/or overcome it through sheer willpower didn't work. Tenet only grossed 350 million euros worldwide. To balance costs and advertising, 800 would have been needed.
It is probably in order not to repeat this debacle that WarnerMedia now focuses on prudence. That is, betting that the new coronavirus will tangibly affect our lives for the foreseeable future and plan accordingly.
Moreover, it is a scenario close to objective reality: vaccines are unlikely to be widely distributed until mid-2021, at best. And theaters will not be able to operate safely or at full capacity until there is widespread immunity.
WarnerMedia is fortunate to have an integrated backup plan. A privilege that restaurants, private spaces and assorted small businesses do not have. But he is resorting to Plan B with the full knowledge that Plan A simply won't be on the table for months, and possibly years.
Is this the end of cinema as we know it?
It's the obvious, distressing question, and it must be said: theaters have no power over this. Cinema chains have already fought tooth and nail against any potential decrease in the exclusivity window. It happened recently, for example, with Netflix on streaming films even competing for the Oscar, such as Roma and The Irishman.
Before the pandemic, cinemas could threaten not to allow a given release on their screens, putting potential earnings and winning prizes at risk. Now, this leverage simply no longer exists.
They are unable to operate in many countries and are half empty in others. For this reason, already in the summer the exclusivity window was reduced to just 17 days from the theater to the film in streaming. Now WarnerMedia's announcement eliminates the window entirely, an offer that already undermined theaters they can just take it or leave it.
A future of streaming and on demand movies
And it could just be the beginning. Just as Tenet became a "guinea pig" for other studios debating what to do with their 2020 releases, it's likely that other companies with their own distribution mechanisms will follow WarnerMedia's model.
What better way to launch Paramount Plus? And Disney + didn't launch Mulan?
I leave you with another pound of questions about this movie streaming horizon. Can all this be undone, when will it be safe to go to the cinema again? How many rooms will disappear? Will pent-up demand bring the numbers back to what they once were? Or will cinema become a niche experience for cinephiles while the average fan stays on the couch?
You want to see it's time to invest in a more beautiful TV?
