August 16, Italy has just (re) closed the discos. I have the impression that this new pandemic coronavirus has been here for years. But it's only been less than eight months of living with and we are nowhere near the final act of this battle.
Some people hastily returned to normal life as soon as blockages were removed, abandoning protections that could keep COVID-19 infection rates low. This rapid return to normal life has fueled new outbreaks, in some cases even larger than before. And the question becomes pressing again: when will the coronavirus pass?
Things cannot go back to the way they used to be, and they won't go back to the way they used to be until the transmission speed is significantly reduced.
It could happen when people return to respect the rules, and when the first vaccines are distributed more widely (in Russia, mass production of the recent vaccine will start in the coming weeks). But it will still take more than a year, even then, before returning to normal.
The latest estimates in order of time on when the coronavirus will pass come to us from the USA. In this case by two characters who are catalyzing world attention on the pandemic. It is about Bill Gates, a multibillionaire and health care philanthropist, and the Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading health expert in the US and one of the most trusted voices in the world on what concerns Covid-19.
Bill Gates: when will the coronavirus pass? 2021-2022
Bill Gates said in a couple of recent interviews that the world will begin to rid itself of Covid-19 starting in late 2021. The US, he says, will be the first to experience the significant drop in infection rates. "There have been trillions of dollars in economic damage and a lot of debt, but the pace of innovation on expanding diagnostics, new therapies, vaccines has also been impressive," he said Gates.
This gives me confidence that we should largely be able to put an end to this thing by the end of 2021 in the US and for the world at large by the end of 2022.Bill Gates
Gates is not the foremost expert in the field, but he is heavily involved in COVID-19 vaccine efforts and other medical programs through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Anthony Fauci: when will the coronavirus pass? In 2022. And in any case before 2024
Fauci's esteem is not far from Gates's. The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) appeared on the PBS television program NewsHour, where he was asked when the coronavirus pandemic will pass.
Maw he acknowledged that if not managed properly, the coronavirus pandemic could "go on for a few years".
“However, we have some things at hand and in our power. If good, robust, careful and prudent public health measures overlap with an effective vaccine, the vaccine does not need to be 100% effective. If we get a vaccine in 2021, within a year we will be back to something similar to normal ”.
However, the virus will not go away
Fauci made it clear that returning to normal does not mean the virus will be eradicated.
"The only virus we have ever eradicated in the history of the planet was smallpox for humans," he said. "But we can keep Covid-19 below a level low enough not to interfere with the kind of normal life we want to get the economy and jobs back."
In summary, beyond a vaccine: it would be necessary to wear masks in a uniform and universal way. Adopt physical and social distancing. Avoid the crowds. Make more life outdoors. Wash your hands as often as possible. Stay away from the small bars.