I must say, there has been no shortage of dire news in recent times. Since January 1, 2020, someone has opened Pandora's box and between pandemics, natural disasters and man-made failures there has been an embarrassment of choice. This analysis developed by a team of theoretical physicists seems to raise the bar further, however.
In an article written by dr. Gerard Aquino, associate researcher at the Alan Turing Institute in London, there is a sort of “road map” of the disaster. A path that clearly shows the strong probability of the collapse of our civilization in a short time, linked to the consumption of resources, overpopulation and deforestation. The study was published in Nature Scientific Reports.
Course for catastrophe
This trajectory greatly restricts the times of the most pessimistic forecasts made in the past. According to Aquino, who is involved in studying the models of complex political, economic and cultural systems for predicting conflicts, the collapse of human civilization will happen much earlier than we think. The cause? The ever-increasing impact of deforestation on planetary life support systems necessary for human survival. A phenomenon that affects many very important and interlinked factors, including carbon storage, oxygen production, soil conservation, regulation of the water cycle, support for nature and human food systems and the habitat of humans and countless other species. Overpopulation worsens the overall picture.
The collapse of civilization
In the absence or with a strong reduction of these crucial elements, primarily forests (which at the current rate of consumption would disappear in 100-200 years), "it is highly unlikely to imagine the survival of many species, including ours, on Earth". The study also specifies something else. “The progressive degradation of the environment due to deforestation would heavily affect human society and consequently human collapse would begin much earlier.” Another academic, Professor, also contributed to the paper Mauro Bologna of the Department of Electronic Engineering of the University of Tarapaca in Chile.
In summary: calculations show that maintaining the current population growth rate and resource consumption, especially the consumption of forests, we have a few decades left before an irreversible collapse of our civilization.
Collapse of civilization: how long are we left?
The conclusion of the document tries to focus on the timing. “Our model shows that a catastrophic collapse in the human population, due to resource consumption, is the most likely scenario of dynamic evolution based on current parameters. From a statistical point of view the probability that our civilization will survive itself is less than 10%.
In the most optimistic scenario."
Maintaining the effective rate of overpopulation and resource consumption, in particular the consumption of forests, we have a few decades (from two to four) before an irreversible collapse of our civilization.