British Minister Grant Shapps he is a sui generis Conservative, at least in our sense of him. Secretary of State for Transport since 2019, he immediately imposed a dense agenda of steps, almost a road map that would lead the United Kingdom to abandon traditionally fueled cars.
His first declarations set 2040 as the year of the "definitive transition". The date was gradually brought closer, until the declarations of last February, which stopped the countdown at 2032, just over 10 years from now. Only electric cars from that date. No internal combustion, and not even hybrid.
Radical change
The arrival of Covid-19 has put two brackets the size of the world between Shapps' declarations, and immediately after a question mark probably visible from space. Yet the minister's intentions remained firm, and at the beginning of June the English government gave them an initial follow-up. There are many clues: from the proposal to give 6000 pounds to every English driver to buy electric-only cars to the negotiations (more or less underground, more or less functional to obtaining advantages) that Elon Musk it would be leading for open one of the mega Tesla factories in the UK. Plus, perhaps the most indicative and important: the electric recharging points in the UK today are double the number of petrol stations.
Ambitious intentions, which match those declared by PM Boris Johnson and the subject of a declaration (announced as "epochal") which should have taken place next November, but which was moved to 2021 due to Covid. However, Johnson's statements are many. I told you about the main one a few months ago: Great Britain wants to become zero impact by 2050.
How will the automotive industry react?
Consumer appetite has grown 17.000% in the last 10 years.
The impression is that demand has grown giganticly, and it is now convenient for the car industry to move towards a production regime increasingly focused on electric vehicles. The effort is gigantic, and the diligence is maximum. This table taken from a report by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) provides an extreme summary of what some brands have planned in the journey towards electric-only cars.
| Brand | Timing | Commitment |
|---|---|---|
| Nissan | 2025 | Battery electric vehicles (BEV) 50% of sales in Japan and Europe |
| Mercedes | 2025 | BEV 15-25% of sales |
| VW | 2025 | EV 25% of sales |
| Porsche | 2030 | EV 100% of sales |
| Toyota | 2030 | Conventional electric and hybrid vehicles 50% of sales |
| Volvo | 2030 | Conventional electric and hybrid vehicles 50% of sales |
| Honda | 2030 | BEV, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles 15% of sales |
It is that the speed of this change, also accelerated by the world economy, is likely to be too high for the sector's adaptability. Resources are lacking, and the government's proposal to give 2 billion euros to the sector is one of the tickling ones (if you think that only FCA has requested a loan of 6,3 billion per capita of which economic quantities we are talking about).
Whether it is 2032 or 2035 (the previous "backup date"), the near future is full of electric proposals, in a very strange climate halfway between a boom and an economic disaster. Both seem to be drivers of change.
