The coronavirus outbreak in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7,9 million people admitted to hospital, a secret Public Health England briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
The document, reports the British newspaper The Guardian, is the signal that the British health leaders have admitted to expect a long and painful crisis for the UK national health service.
The report reported by The Guardian newspaper, which beat other UK newspapers to the punch, also suggests that English health chiefs are prepared to see 80% of Britons infected with the coronavirus within a year.
Professor Chris whitty, the government's chief medical advisor, previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the true number would have been lower. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five Brits are "expected" to contract the virus.
80% of Brits infected, millions of Brits in hospital.
The document, which also cites some scientific papers, states: “80% of the population is expected to be infected with Covid-19. Over the next 12 months, up to 15% (7,9 million people) may require hospitalization."
The briefing sets out the latest official thinking on how severely the infection could affect both the health of the public and that of staff in critical services such as the NHS, police, fire and transport.
It was drawn up in these days and approved by Dr. Susan Hopkins, the main official dealing with the epidemic. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior NHS doctors.
“For the public to know that it could last for 12 months would cause a lot of reaction and great concern,” he says Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“One year is entirely plausible. But the figure of hospitalized patients needs to be looked into more closely,” added Hunter, an expert in the epidemiology of infectious diseases.
“The coronavirus will last a year: it will go away, then it will come back”
“I think it will fade in the summer, towards the end of June, and return in November, like the usual seasonal flu does. It will remain forever, but will become less severe over time, as immunity increases,” he added.
The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer will kill it for good.
The document also reveals that around 500.000 of the 5 million people deemed viable because they work "in essential services and critical infrastructure" may fall ill at any time during a "long" peak of the epidemic. The 5 million includes 1 million NHS personnel and 1,5 million social assistance.
The briefing raises questions about how Britain will continue to function normally in the event the coronavirus lasts a year. The document warns that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity". The directives launched the other day in the UK stipulate that anyone with a cough must self-isolate for at least seven days.
A high number of victims
A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “wave” of patients whose lives have been put at risk by Covid-19 has said an infection rate of 80% it could lead to the deaths of over half a million people.
If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% that many experts use as a working hypothesis, this would mean 531.100 deaths in England alone. But if Whitty's insistence that the rate will be closer to 0,6% proves accurate, the figure will be "only" 318.660 deaths.
The English peak
Experts who advise governments around the world on how epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a fall. Whitty, who has seen modeling done by British and global scientists, says case numbers will rise rapidly over the next 10 to 14 weeks.
This will mean (in the UK, which lags behind Italy) a peak between the end of May and mid-June, when the NHS will come under heavy pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and extend it for a longer period of time so that health services are able to cope with the situation. And then there is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by that time.
After the peak, the number of cases and deaths are expected to decline for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a low enough level, which may not be zero.
Especially in the summer months, the number of cases is expected to fall because people spend more time outdoors and are less likely to be confined in close spaces with infected people.
In summary, there is a fear that the coronavirus could last a year, returning in the autumn or winter months, meaning that long-term planning will be required.
